Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Is the S&P 500 in an upwardly trending channel?


When looking at a chart of the S&P 500 since July, when another major leg up in the market had started, it looks like the market is simply in an upwardly trending channel. However, when you look at the S&P 500 since the march lows, the pattern that emerges is an ascending wedge with a break to the downside.

So, the question is, how long do you hold onto a particular pattern before trying to identify another pattern forming? True to form the bearish ascending wedge seen since the march lows did have the markets turn negative, and we had a 5% correction, but now it looks as if the uptrend is still intact.

This uptrend might be tested with the initial unemployment claims tomorrow, and the non-farm payrolls report on friday.

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